October 12, 2009

Vision 2020: A Review

Vision 2020 was first introduced in 1991 by the then former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad with the aims to bring Malaysia to another level of economic success. In 30 years time Malaysia aspires to be one of the develop country of the world. A group of renowned economic consultant was formed to chart the pathway and millions of dollar spent for this purpose. The ‘secretariat’ i.e. Unit Perancang Ekonomi (EPU) under the Ministry of Prime Minister is the authority that monitors and evaluates the progress of the roadmap.

At the early stage the Malaysian economic was in the right path. A double digit figures of GDP was achieve from 1991 – 1997 despite the East Asian economic downturn at the later year. However, since then the growth is declining until it reaches, hopefully its lowest peak in 2009. Other than the 1997 crisis, Malaysia and the rest of the world has also suffered another cycle of economic crisis back in 2008.





Graph: Malaysian GDP Growth Rate Jan/06-Jul/09, Source: Dept of Statistic Malaysia

This year we are having negative GDP, worst ever since the last 20 years or so. Therefore, should we still wish to achieve the Vision 2020 on time, not less than 5 – 6% growth is needed annually. The task is so cruel and to some, technically speaking we ain’t got a chance unless a 360 degrees shifting of the current strategies are taking position. Here some (there should be many more, of course):-

a) Government should, hand in hand develop competitive multinational companies. At current almost 95% of the industry are coming from SMEs. The small & medium companies is on a survival basis and very much profit oriented i.e. less or no R&D budget. Research & development is essential for companies to enhance and move forward, while maintaining its competitiveness. We could not afford to compete with the labour-oriented superpower like China and India. Hence, our labour competitiveness & productivity should be develop to a higher level i.e Knowledge-based like work force in Singapore, Korea etc.

b) Foreign direct investment (FDI) is good for domestic investment. However, the government should ensure that the foreign companies that comes with FDI are not taking advantage of our lenient investment policies i.e. free trade zone, tax exemption etc. They will leave if no continuation in investment benefit, as in the case of Intel, Ipoh and other manufacturing companies.

c) Government should monitor the current trend of Malaysian FDIs to other booming countries. A proper incentives i.e low interest, infra etc to ensure local investments are maintained as domestic profit will also benefited government via corporate tax.

d) Introduction of stimulus package amounting to RM67 billions to boast up the economy was introduced in 2008. And please....in doing so no more cronisme, nepotisme and yang seangkatan dengannya as if won’t bring up the nation competitiveness. Should it happen again then forget about future employment, good economy and even Vision 2020. The stimulus package, with a proper monitoring and management, it will sure have a boasting impact to the economy.

However, on another note, the government should also put up a thorough consideration on the decrease of Federal Government current account. The government might not be able to sustain comes 2015 if the situation does not getting better.




Graph: Federal Gov’n Current Account Analysis,
Source: Dept of Statistic Malaysia & EPU, JPM 2009


e) Government budget on expenditure is comparatively higher than the actual private investment, as compared to other develop nation. Government initiatives should also play a major role i.e. shorter period for rolling plan & facilitation fund to increase private investment project as a tipping point.

f) We know where we are, we know where we are heading to with this Vision 2020. So now to fill up the gap, we need a good monitoring system to guide us thru. Government has recently introduced Bidang Keberhasilan Utama (NKA) & Petunjuk Prestasi Utama (KPI) with an outcome based approach to monitor the progress of the economy as well as other performances (although in private institutions KPI setting is nothing new).

In where I am working now, we are also in the process of developing our roadmaps with the objective to achieve our aspiration for 2013, 2015 and 2020. The roadmaps i.e strategic & technology, will let us know the gaps between current position and future goals.

g) The new paradigm of knowledge economy, in the advent of the information and communications technologies, should be well ventured into.

h) Enhancement of the economic system i.e. bereaucracy, community based service and even public transportation.

i) A politically stabilize country. It’s a MUST!

An opportunity to be at the recent company’s Business Planning FY2011 – 2015 seminar & workshop, atended by some renowned guest speakers from the government agencies and industry, inspired the above writing.

Ref:
i.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com
ii. http://www.wawasan2020.com
iii.http://www.themalaysianinsider.com
iv.21st Century Malaysia - Challenges & Strategies in attaining Vision 2020 – Micheal Yeoh, 2002


v.Industrial Master Plan (IMP) 2006 – 2020, Economic Planning Unit, Jabatan Perdana Menteri, Department of Statistic Malaysia etc
vi.Blog2 dan pemahaman individual







12 comments:

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